Speaker
Description
What determines success in the English Premier League — superior
player quality, tactical approach, or transfer investment? This
study addresses that question empirically using R and the
worldfootballR package.
We construct a panel dataset of 100 team-season observations
across five EPL seasons (2019/20 to 2023/24) by combining FBref
and Transfermarkt data via worldfootballR. Three blocks of
predictors are defined: player quality (net expected goals,
finishing overperformance), tactical approach (possession,
progressive passes, pressing success), and financial investment
(gross and net transfer spend). Final league points is the outcome
variable.
Block OLS regression models and incremental F-tests are used to
quantify the independent contribution of each factor. Results show
that player quality — proxied by net expected goals — is the
strongest predictor of final points, explaining the largest share
of variance. Tactical indicators add significant additional
explanatory power. Transfer spend alone is a considerably weaker
and noisier predictor than either preceding factor.
This talk demonstrates a fully reproducible R workflow using
worldfootballR, tidyverse, ggplot2, broom, and patchwork —
from automated data extraction to regression modelling and
publication-quality visualisation.
If you used AI tools or services to support the preparation of this submission, please state the name and reason for using each of them.
Claude (Anthropic) was used to assist with code structure, LaTeX
template formatting, and editorial suggestions. All research design,
analysis interpretation, and academic content decisions were made
by the author.
Additional Material or Paper
No prior publication. Full analysis code and paper in preparation.
| Keywords: Please list up to 5 keywords to help us find the right session for your contribution. | football analytics, expected goals, regression analysis, sports data, worldfootballR |
|---|---|
| Virtual Option | This submission is for onsite presentation only |
| Video Recording | Please don't share recordings of my talk |
| The author(s) agree(s) to take responsibility and be accountable for the contents of the submission and is/are authorized to present it. | Confirm |
| Interested in serving as reviewer? | no |